MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbf58d86e1a38aa705f840b309b8c2f31f1cfe9a6e0c7e7845fdc083f4235dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 47c | 1,466$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.54 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 610.51$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 319.71$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 249.02$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 72c | 235.89$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 48c | 221.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 174.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 39c | 116.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 41c | 112.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 52c | 108.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 95.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 78c | 94.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 27c | 71.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 20c | 70.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 67.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 48c | 41.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 65c | 34.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 30.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 42c | 26.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.