MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f2b8cf8b8548898c2b710779d201e3637be2bcd22cce744996029ecedf3c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 2,919$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 2,466$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 1,185$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.45 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 558.93$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 396.43$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 334$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 128.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 108.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 108.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 96.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 72.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 66.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa3…b603backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 61.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Texas Rangers | 70c | 61.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 56.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 56.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 47.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 26.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 26.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 292 | 56.5%165 W · 127 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 16.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.