MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b639840bc870dff570481949d82ed0ddcf661c9c78c0247fd1152d9e74a01ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 46c | 110,000$50,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,399.97 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 54c | 83,852$45,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,280.05 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 12,599$6,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,794.17 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 54c | 7,093$3,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,830.15 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,557$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.43 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 1,279$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 54c | 953$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.44 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 932.82$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.89 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 811$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.94 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 45c | 793.69$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.53 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 771.65$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.24 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 760$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.6 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 54c | 456.13$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.31 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 54c | 311.18$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.04 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 273.41$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 50c | 263.92$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 46c | 240.01$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.61 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Over | 45c | 229.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 47c | 170.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 164.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 162.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 36c | 158.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 47c | 150.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 57c | 140.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 41c | 118.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 47c | 109.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 107$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…8e38backed Over | 47c | 105.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 100.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 37c | 91.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 89.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 78.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Over | 46c | 75.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 47c | 69.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 42c | 67.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 65.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 47c | 60.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d2…ea45backed Over | 46c | 59.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 60c | 56.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 28c | 46.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 46c | 45.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 54c | 38.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 57c | 37.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 47c | 35.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 54c | 35.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 53c | 31.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Under | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 30.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 47c | 24.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Over | 46c | 24.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 54c | 24.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…f377backed Over | 69c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.