Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc2011dc5b47f0eddf93d4bb6390e5ed3b8560a4fc69a82a2c82e63315cf4874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 273.4$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.34 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 148.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 147.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x558d…b8dcbacked Yes | 25c | 130.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 21c | 103.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 91.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 88.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 84.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.95 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 77.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 76.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 74.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 56.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 50.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 31c | 48.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 46.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…58d4backed Yes | 26c | 43.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 40.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 76c | 34.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…dc92backed No | 76c | 32.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed No | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 75c | 26.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…44adbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 24.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 50c | 23.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…162bbacked No | 76c | 23.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 22.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 60c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 68c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 63c | 19.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 17.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 17.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked No | 74c | 17.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…b2afbacked No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.