South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc35573dd0a753b8f3200db049e89989f4db54153a520c3d64a256b8550fe798
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 49c | 2,513$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.69 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 20c | 2,380$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 34c | 1,922$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.56 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…5e50backed Yes | 10c | 1,325$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 49c | 981.27$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.2 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 40c | 777.89$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.31 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Yes | 72c | 664.03$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 76c | 540.03$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.86 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Yes | 67c | 489.99$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 447.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.39 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…cfbfbacked Yes | 49c | 359.04$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 23c | 330.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 38c | 275.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 66c | 158.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…aee9backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 63c | 129.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 49c | 125.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 59c | 123.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 117.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 34c | 95.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 38c | 86.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 63c | 77.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked No | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 30c | 72.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 42c | 68.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 42c | 68.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…4190backed Yes | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 37c | 60.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 23c | 59.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 33c | 58.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 54c | 46.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Yes | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 49c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 49c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 56c | 33.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Yes | 61c | 32.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked No | 38c | 32.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 41c | 31.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 41c | 31.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked No | 44c | 30.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…e95fbacked Yes | 74c | 30.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 47c | 25.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…92f2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-04-13?No won
- Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-04-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.