South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc3a41982e2f81fe68bc6d0c3a88e70f3f9637538961eb90b028f0ab746c7396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 5c | 1,465$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.29 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 516.51$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.24 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 320$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 79c | 251.24$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…a275backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 65c | 199.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 180.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 55c | 178.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 63c | 159.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 66c | 147$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked No | 66c | 121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…b4f2backed No | 66c | 115.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 42c | 113.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 100.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 65c | 93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 38c | 62.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…d19ebacked Yes | 35c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 41c | 36.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 36.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…6f90backed Yes | 36c | 36.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…cdd1backed Yes | 36c | 33.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1c…bdbabacked Yes | 35c | 32.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…b3a8backed Yes | 36c | 30.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…aeaabacked Yes | 35c | 30.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff7…4ae6backed Yes | 35c | 30.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…9c70backed Yes | 34c | 29.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 60c | 22.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e3…47cebacked No | 66c | 21.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7178backed No | 67c | 21.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…520ebacked No | 66c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…db3ebacked No | 66c | 20.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…0800backed No | 66c | 19.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…7953backed No | 67c | 19.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…56efbacked No | 66c | 19.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3e…22bfbacked No | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…0558backed No | 66c | 18.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…045bbacked No | 67c | 17.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…62eabacked No | 66c | 17.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…39b7backed No | 66c | 16.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-01-23?No won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-01-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.