Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc5e8815e2c1387bf39d9d5d063af6d2f7f0c054e788cafefe133d135573860e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 2,345$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.39 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,335$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 55c | 1,200$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.51 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 51c | 1,184$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.84 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed Under | 51c | 981.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 14c | 933.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 69c | 741.09$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 50c | 520$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 55c | 488.94$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.95 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…aa8fbacked Under | 46c | 434$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 420.66$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…4c5cbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Over | 49c | 310$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…8d95backed Over | 43c | 242.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 192.65$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 15c | 172.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 60c | 153.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 11c | 131.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 123.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 125 | 64%80 W · 45 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 50c | 108.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Under | 51c | 101.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 49c | 101.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 47c | 64.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 31c | 51.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 64.4%179 W · 99 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 49c | 25.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Over | 50c | 24.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Nacional (-1.5)CD Nacional won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.