MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc78dca945b7bbcce0c08a256a5f7ed9e1910d4cceb8b5752a0403dce459b408
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 22,484$10,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,699.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 20,157$10,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,462.01 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 5,014$2,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…b386backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 1,744$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,255$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.6 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 1,223$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.11 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 1,167$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.6 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 559.45$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.09 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 396$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 373.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 302.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.23 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 238.1$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…8483backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…2b6abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 179.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 170.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 135$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 133.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 125.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…7e55backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…f13cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 95.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 94.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 86.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 68.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 55.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 54.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 40.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…4c62backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 39.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 38.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313f…4032backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 32.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 32.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 30.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…7483backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…a11cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…5fbebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 19.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 18.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.