Serie A · resolved market
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7fdd8dc62d53e6a529752b9f2494b00934cc6e6d131e343a155a80de55a52d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Lecceof ACF Fiorentina, US Lecce
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 4,615$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.38 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…7c31backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 2,880$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.86 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked US Lecce | 79c | 2,710$2,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.53 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed ACF Fiorentina | 19c | 2,504$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.7 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked US Lecce | 79c | 1,481$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.75 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked US Lecce | 79c | 1,404$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.22 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked US Lecce | 79c | 1,025$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 680.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed US Lecce | 80c | 666$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed ACF Fiorentina | 19c | 405.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed US Lecce | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked US Lecce | 79c | 249.76$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 226.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed US Lecce | 79c | 221.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed US Lecce | 80c | 176.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed ACF Fiorentina | 32c | 154.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked ACF Fiorentina | 15c | 135.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 99.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…dc65backed ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked ACF Fiorentina | 17c | 81.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed ACF Fiorentina | 17c | 63.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked ACF Fiorentina | 21c | 54.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed US Lecce | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed US Lecce | 80c | 50.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked US Lecce | 80c | 27.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked US Lecce | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed US Lecce | 76c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…d2cabacked US Lecce | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)this page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Lecce (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.