Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e11b43288a0b381527d41b6d511b8607bdce66fdf9f1897c722b0f965e31416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 4,547$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.82 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 15c | 2,495$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.22 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 2c | 1,281$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 21c | 1,207$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.25 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 5c | 699.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 19c | 499.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 80c | 494$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 12c | 422.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 6c | 300.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 21c | 299.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 232.71$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 9c | 174.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 77c | 155.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 20c | 121.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…4e46backed Under | 79c | 96.24$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Under | 78c | 49.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…68d8backed Under | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Under | 78c | 31.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02a…9f2dbacked Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 79c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 77c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Lecce (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.