Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc90563eb7040da42a61229aa2841239552415041d6f08be058e258b01f7b620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, GLYPH
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed OG | 37c | 1,736$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.22 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked GLYPH | 60c | 770.23$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.03 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked GLYPH | 63c | 752.48$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.42 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed OG | 21c | 750$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.5 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed GLYPH | 59c | 749.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed GLYPH | 63c | 624.85$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.41 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed GLYPH | 63c | 551.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.76 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked OG | 39c | 514.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.48 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…bedfbacked OG | 37c | 499.98$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed GLYPH | 63c | 494.85$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.8 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed GLYPH | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed OG | 57c | 470$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.56 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked OG | 35c | 411.09$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.21 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed OG | 64c | 330.23$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed OG | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked GLYPH | 63c | 287.75$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.54 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked GLYPH | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed GLYPH | 20c | 89.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked OG | 76c | 50.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…7054backed GLYPH | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed OG | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed GLYPH | 68c | 36.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked OG | 38c | 32.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed OG | 32c | 32.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed OG | 50c | 26.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed GLYPH | 65c | 19.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a05abacked GLYPH | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsOG won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.