Dota2 · resolved market
LGD Gaming to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9dc33794a4c94dd5a368eb57bccbb1449f56796b51f9e3765a44de75f0b856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda78…73c1backed Yes | 43c | 1,200$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Yes | 3c | 778.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed Yes | 53c | 739.82$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.1 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 43c | 647.42$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.95 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 487.05$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.9 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde57…666fbacked No | 48c | 462.3$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked No | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…c32abacked Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…a9c0backed No | 47c | 338.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.44 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 322.45$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f1…9359backed Yes | 9c | 289.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…d8e1backed No | 47c | 285$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked No | 47c | 249.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 53c | 243.78$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…789bbacked No | 43c | 230.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Yes | 56c | 217.54$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c07…1317backed Yes | 9c | 215.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 46c | 197.04$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed No | 46c | 180$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 56c | 160.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…f5c4backed Yes | 57c | 158.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…bd5ebacked Yes | 56c | 153.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Yes | 54c | 125.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…5ecfbacked Yes | 16c | 104.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…5bbabacked Yes | 50c | 99.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…9d50backed Yes | 61c | 98.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 56c | 86.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…b4e9backed Yes | 16c | 65.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 59.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 57c | 45.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 66c | 43.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…f7e6backed Yes | 55c | 40.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 52c | 38.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Yes | 38c | 30.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 30.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 54c | 26.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 25.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed No | 77c | 18.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LGD Gaming to win 2-0?this page
- GamerLegion to win 2-0?No won
- LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.