NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb0003e5e399f11987af65b366b89f0e40c90be6c3f3f835aaf0709eb3049ee

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 76ersof 76ers, Nets
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,859 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Nets	53c	4,000$2,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,120	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d6…34e3backed 76ers	47c	3,262$1,533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,728.75	205	42.9%88 W · 117 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Nets	51c	2,759$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.7	145	49%71 W · 74 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed 76ers	50c	2,715$1,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,366.74	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	51c	2,175$1,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.62	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked 76ers	48c	1,952$937 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,015.24	240	48.3%116 W · 124 L	-13.4wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Nets	54c	1,852$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	400	41.5%166 W · 234 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked 76ers	50c	1,583$791 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$791.78	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nets	50c	1,501$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.47	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked 76ers	48c	1,266$608 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.44	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nets	50c	1,188$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.88	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Nets	52c	1,061$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.36	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nets	51c	800$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed 76ers	48c	724.5$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376.74	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4602…3315backed 76ers	47c	700$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc65…19a0backed 76ers	48c	700$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364	260	44.6%116 W · 144 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed 76ers	47c	582$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.46	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nets	52c	378.41$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.77	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nets	53c	284.22$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.61	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed 76ers	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Nets	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Nets	54c	122.22$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed 76ers	48c	110.66$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.83	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Nets	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	49c	95$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.54	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed 76ers	48c	81.33$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.52	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked 76ers	48c	58.2$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.26	180	53.3%96 W · 84 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…fb9dbacked 76ers	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nets	48c	38.46$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event