MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc4c8fcd96161923aa3eaf70709e3490c1a181ea28d5b641d6e39f4c579c111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 20c | 1,219$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 1,095$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,042$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox | 55c | 604.95$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.55 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 593.75$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 20c | 375$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox | 20c | 298.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.58 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 270.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.06 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 260$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Boston Red Sox | 20c | 220$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 209.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 154.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 93.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 60c | 92.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 90.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Francisco Giants | 24c | 86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 82.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Boston Red Sox | 70c | 47.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Francisco Giants | 33c | 41.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 39.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 38.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 38.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 34.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 29.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 26.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Boston Red Sox | 77c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 16.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.