Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc5d42d0e840091baa7e14e9c45863a295d2caa6dd5fca28edfd336c761c894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 1,063$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.07 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4808…5309backed Yes | 2c | 817.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 54c | 457.85$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 30c | 281.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 281$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 7c | 260.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 70c | 257.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 35c | 248.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 21c | 203.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 7c | 197.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 189.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 185.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 172.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 75c | 166.79$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 28c | 153.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 25c | 144.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 76c | 137.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 72c | 133.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 38c | 131.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 123.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…2c55backed Yes | 31c | 119.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 113$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 110.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 107.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 23c | 107.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 79c | 98.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 24c | 97.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 26c | 95.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 31c | 91.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…db4dbacked Yes | 67c | 86.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681f…02d0backed Yes | 55c | 82.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 81.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 72.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 44c | 72.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 44c | 72.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 19c | 66.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 35c | 64.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 34c | 61.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 32c | 58.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 35c | 58.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 57.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 56.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes | 49c | 55.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 49.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 33c | 48.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 35c | 48.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 43.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 65c | 37.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e4…feb3backed Yes | 35c | 35.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…a1acbacked No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 28.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 40c | 25.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 66c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 46c | 24.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 24.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…fbe2backed Yes | 59c | 22.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 20.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 69c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 69c | 16.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…4d9abacked No | 71c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.