Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65447f2dcea5217db919c1390828fe40678e45a89dcc8fbc02f540dfa5773577
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 36c | 387.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 256.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 40c | 193.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 163.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 37c | 161.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 62c | 155.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 36c | 149.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 43c | 134.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 119.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…dd2bbacked Yes | 41c | 114.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 114.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 40c | 104.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 104.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 50c | 97.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 88.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 39c | 85.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 71.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 70.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…35a2backed Yes | 42c | 70.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 70.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 36c | 67.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 65.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 54.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…2c55backed Yes | 44c | 53.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 37c | 51.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked No | 56c | 51.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…c819backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 44c | 47.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…425cbacked Yes | 40c | 44.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 49c | 43.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…db4dbacked Yes | 45c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 78c | 40.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 58c | 40.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 42c | 36.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 34.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…ebcabacked Yes | 36c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 46c | 28.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 44c | 27.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793b…76efbacked No | 58c | 26.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 64c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 60c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3018…bae6backed No | 60c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 79c | 14.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.