Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd0c52d7bad4bb0790498c1033670e0598305e241535b3aba86aa0d4b48a586e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Aurora | 62c | 11,114$6,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.32 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Team Nemesis | 41c | 6,152$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 3,088$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.32 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Team Nemesis | 22c | 3,000$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.99 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 57c | 1,681$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.5 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.99 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 59c | 1,342$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.65 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 1,323$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.88 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Team Nemesis | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…d549backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 1,229$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Aurora | 70c | 1,100$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Nemesis | 34c | 1,002$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.26 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…b76bbacked Team Nemesis | 7c | 1,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Aurora | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Team Nemesis | 42c | 954.72$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.98 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Team Nemesis | 7c | 923$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Aurora | 59c | 642.06$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.1 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Team Nemesis | 17c | 578.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Aurora | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Aurora | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…4d65backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Team Nemesis | 39c | 255.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked Aurora | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…4a75backed Aurora | 69c | 215.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Aurora | 62c | 208.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 40c | 208.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Aurora | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…ce53backed Aurora | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Team Nemesis | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Aurora | 64c | 175.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Aurora | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…8d9abacked Team Nemesis | 38c | 127.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Nemesis | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Aurora | 50c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Aurora | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…b6cbbacked Team Nemesis | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Team Nemesis | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…91b9backed Team Nemesis | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…3a77backed Aurora | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…f0d2backed Aurora | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…d8b7backed Aurora | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis (BO3)Team Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.