TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Aurora, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,346
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,346 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis35c15,405$5,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,059.612,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora72c13,474$9,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,722.0786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab5…aab4backed Aurora68c9,962$6,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,774.1560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Team Nemesis35c7,856$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,088.5214947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Aurora69c5,928$4,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,092.174645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Aurora69c4,453$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.4118452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis39c4,450$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,724.291,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Team Nemesis26c3,562$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,647.018447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Nemesis57c3,456$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.8530138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora32c3,122$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Aurora72c2,894$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.3812862.5%80 W · 48 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Nemesis42c2,703$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.0353451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Nemesis44c2,477$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.0185851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Nemesis33c2,025$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.921,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Nemesis23c2,000$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.9821847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Team Nemesis53c1,736$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.6434146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked Aurora65c1,704$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Team Nemesis26c1,636$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2178046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Nemesis47c1,447$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.7189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Aurora32c1,389$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.7412050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Nemesis35c1,319$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.0589440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Aurora50c1,133$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.1715345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Aurora75c1,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7508950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Nemesis25c1,000$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7508253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd020…6394backed Aurora2c991$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.081010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4e9ebacked Aurora77c912.65$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.741741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora33c869.38$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.1286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Team Nemesis41c832.68$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.6819743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Aurora2c819.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Aurora77c818$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.8611855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Team Nemesis26c776.23$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.4111947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Aurora62c751.07$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.6612256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora12c744.72$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0723546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed Aurora52c742.85$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.759645.8%44 W · 52 L-12.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3d83…b76bbacked Aurora2c705.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Aurora62c704.29$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5610833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Nemesis27c700.29$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.2546535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked Aurora41c678.44$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda2f…9716backed Aurora45c673.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Aurora78c633.58$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.19560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Aurora56c601.61$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2814537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Team Nemesis22c600$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46849133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Aurora33c586.29$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3713251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c9…bacfbacked Team Nemesis28c549.61$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.051540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3568…c765backed Aurora43c542.7$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2321936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x935e…d6e4backed Team Nemesis80c519$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed Aurora24c500.32$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9914244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Aurora2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Team Nemesis46c500$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.52948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Aurora44c451.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed Aurora42c450$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1894957.1%28 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95a5…a523backed Aurora69c434.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14b…1ad3backed Aurora57c425$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.75425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Aurora48c400$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19112755.1%70 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Team Nemesis15c400$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3408330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Team Nemesis26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.6222453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Aurora62c373.33$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.235370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Aurora48c357.02$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.218728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9801…1ab6backed Team Nemesis26c353.85$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.854436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Aurora55c311.82$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.75962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Nemesis32c311.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.9154445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3d…b521backed Team Nemesis61c308.49$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.491758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora33c294.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.21,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed Aurora69c287.96$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.695540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Nemesis35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7117342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Team Nemesis36c261.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1817444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Aurora62c241.94$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15031545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Team Nemesis31c240.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.172751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb75e…1737backed Team Nemesis44c233.62$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1410945%49 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b3…f676backed Aurora66c232.7$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.271040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Aurora75c216$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1625044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Team Nemesis57c210.53$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5318347%86 W · 97 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc47f…94b4backed Aurora48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b6…1765backed Aurora74c200.89$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.669244.6%41 W · 51 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5f…7fbfbacked Aurora76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x073a…6f98backed Team Nemesis40c192.65$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7120361.6%125 W · 78 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Team Nemesis51c180.81$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.713925.6%10 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Aurora61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007157.7%41 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Nemesis56c155.22$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6646872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Team Nemesis59c150.85$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.855062%31 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Aurora68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0953…91b9backed Aurora46c140.57$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.821442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Aurora74c131$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.945137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Aurora76c124.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.992080%16 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfce7…cc16backed Aurora42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.42250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked Aurora44c107.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.212334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked Team Nemesis33c106.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.069544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Team Nemesis59c103$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4916835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Aurora30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017023.5%40 W · 130 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Aurora62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6214948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Aurora75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76d4…3ad4backed Team Nemesis32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688149.4%40 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b86…3010backed Aurora71c99.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711070%7 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Nemesis54c99.88$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3818649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Aurora58c99.31$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.613157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd5…b24abacked Team Nemesis52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64f4…9db5backed Aurora53c93.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263c…3ef9backed Aurora55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d40…4e09backed Aurora68c77.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.