Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x569d72fe3d8477ba0d31652f6db2c79f91e71dd590450c07d31ed3db8332b265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Aurora, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Aurora | 68c | 10,000$6,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,796.18 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis | 43c | 3,456$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.45 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 3,067$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.91 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Team Nemesis | 33c | 2,409$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.24 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Team Nemesis | 45c | 2,400$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed Aurora | 53c | 2,289$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.04 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 2,012$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.26 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 67c | 1,928$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.48 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Nemesis | 44c | 1,924$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Team Nemesis | 77c | 1,908$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.6 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Aurora | 37c | 1,727$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.59 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Aurora | 69c | 1,019$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…4629backed Aurora | 34c | 982.8$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Aurora | 52c | 947.41$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Team Nemesis | 72c | 893.77$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Nemesis | 33c | 608.52$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.71 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d83…b76bbacked Aurora | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Nemesis | 32c | 556$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.08 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Nemesis | 32c | 546.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.88 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Aurora | 67c | 501.06$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.71 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Nemesis | 43c | 416.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.35 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Aurora | 68c | 411.76$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Aurora | 18c | 203.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Aurora | 67c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…9edcbacked Aurora | 45c | 171.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 168.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3faa…bf0cbacked Aurora | 60c | 167.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Aurora | 66c | 151.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 110.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Nemesis | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Aurora | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…b6cbbacked Team Nemesis | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Aurora | 26c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4f…ce1fbacked Team Nemesis | 78c | 60.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f4…9db5backed Aurora | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Aurora | 33c | 57.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -12.0wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora | 37c | 48.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Team Nemesis | 54c | 31.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Nemesis | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…f0d2backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Team Nemesis | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed Team Nemesis | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis (BO3)Team Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.