TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,317 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes1c5,790$59 inLost-$59.3836113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c3,976$47 inLost-$47.465535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes3c2,930$88 inLost-$87.621515.3%8 W · 143 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+227.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes4c2,635$98 inLost-$98.122,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,332$20 inLost-$20.251,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes3c2,329$80 inLost-$805141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e6…3b9bbacked Yes4c2,040$89 inLost-$88.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29bc…e100backed Yes3c1,135$31 inLost-$31.227032.9%23 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes2c855.21$14 inLost-$14.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes4c807.39$34 inLost-$33.6911418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes4c643.26$27 inLost-$26.69704.3%3 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaed4…09afbacked Yes8c502.74$40 inLost-$39.95258%2 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d5…69b0backed Yes3c408.06$14 inLost-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes14c256.94$35 inLost-$34.7711121.6%24 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcabc…8f57backed Yes12c239.08$28 inLost-$28.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4801…4a60backed Yes8c223$18 inLost-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f25…8a2fbacked Yes10c101.01$10 inLost-$104528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab54…da9fbacked Yes13c89.55$12 inLost-$12825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.