TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,583 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes19c3,489$655 inLost-$654.9836113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6894…5a2abacked No56c1,370$765 inWon+$605.613125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaed4…09afbacked Yes5c604.92$30 inLost-$30.04258%2 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes5c599.87$29 inLost-$28.8842719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes16c473.04$74 inLost-$74.4440519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes27c417$111 inLost-$111.12704.3%3 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes21c385.32$80 inLost-$79.6937830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c363.1$11 inLost-$11.111,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c14…8da1backed Yes48c200$96 inLost-$961136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d7…9fbabacked Yes48c200$96 inLost-$96728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a79…b31ebacked Yes49c200$98 inLost-$981330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No80c197.63$158 inWon+$39.7426461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c161.82$22 inLost-$22.1479735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes7c152.81$11 inLost-$11.1732016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No76c148.12$113 inWon+$34.8334039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c124.69$55 inLost-$55.4142628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12e7…974dbacked No79c122.86$97 inWon+$26.04887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+135.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab54…da9fbacked Yes12c112.75$14 inLost-$13.68825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x936a…7a5abacked No67c109.38$74 inWon+$35.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45f0…5e0dbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost-$48.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No68c100$68 inWon+$3210547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d74…fb6cbacked No77c100$77 inWon+$232425%6 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c90.16$12 inLost-$12.262,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c72.03$11 inLost-$10.9399619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…95ebbacked Yes30c69.99$21 inLost-$21812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No70c67.89$48 inWon+$20.3733670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes19c58.53$11 inLost-$10.8613038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes27c40.73$11 inLost-$11825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+344.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4651…1ca4backed Yes45c29.82$13 inLost-$13.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No64c28.12$18 inWon+$10.0159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed No67c28.04$19 inWon+$9.252951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec60…5adebacked No79c22.48$18 inWon+$4.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+88.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72cd…ba23backed No75c20.1$15 inWon+$5.031136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked No69c20$14 inWon+$6.217324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d0…e8c6backed No78c19.56$15 inWon+$4.313259.8%79 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7d…10fcbacked No78c19.21$15 inWon+$4.3850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No78c16$12 inWon+$3.614575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.