Asian League · resolved market
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5a4d1042dc78fe3c9856226efb091a807907a065a552dd8f0f71a62ce3b13f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 22c | 2,013$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.76 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 909.09$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 26c | 499.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 80c | 316.45$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 23c | 304.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 74c | 301.22$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…0fd7backed Under | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 256.36$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 18c | 62.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 21c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Under | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 79c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Shandong Taishan FC won
- Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.