Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd7e4ca9eb66589f868187b534f48db7c9d70469db4e52d4e826e53cbbdb13c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 36c | 836.6$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.6 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 43c | 429.93$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 425.43$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 25c | 321.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 296.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 79c | 260.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 28c | 213.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.47 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 67c | 188.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 179$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 149.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 67c | 131.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 125$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 24c | 105.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 101.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 100.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 93.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 79c | 93.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 76c | 87.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 82.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed No | 74c | 81.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 72c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 66.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 59.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 31c | 56.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 35c | 46.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 42.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…fefcbacked Yes | 71c | 41.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 36.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 59c | 35.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 43c | 34.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 56c | 32.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 64c | 29.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 74c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 25.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 66c | 24.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 72c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 53c | 19.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 74c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 60c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 68c | 17.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 62c | 16.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.