Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8c2d9a982e9201024145a0adec503d90af90efbcb9014040af6cce2ba72b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2978…b511backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 44c | 2,283$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.83 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 56c | 2,269$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.53 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 1,943$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.17 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 75c | 1,057$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.09 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 24c | 958.54$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 48c | 925.93$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.45 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 319.9$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 29c | 311.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 73c | 217.78$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…94ecbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 144.35$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…7804backed Yes | 24c | 106.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 100.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 27c | 80.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…49c0backed Yes | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 63.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 26c | 62.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 57.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 49.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…5ee5backed Yes | 30c | 47.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 45.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 39.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed No | 78c | 30.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 73c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb534…f7e7backed No | 75c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.