Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax beat Maccabi TLV?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8f903ac83b5bd029b84d3b9cb8bedb8ca838cb87bd5e5b3e15883bb73766b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 23c | 4,613$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.54 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…0901backed Yes | 77c | 1,860$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 24c | 1,207$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…0b0fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,026$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 6c | 899.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 5c | 731.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58bf…040abacked Yes | 78c | 519.99$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…88a8backed Yes | 77c | 507.57$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a606backed Yes | 77c | 328.52$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…a477backed Yes | 77c | 278.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…004dbacked Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +67%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked No | 25c | 199.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 76c | 153.8$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 24c | 149.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…fd5dbacked Yes | 75c | 148.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…ea32backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d4…d566backed Yes | 77c | 128.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 77c | 123.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 77c | 92.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 77c | 90.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc3…3ef9backed Yes | 76c | 83.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…bf43backed Yes | 76c | 77.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf4…37f1backed Yes | 76c | 70.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…6d3cbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…f42fbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…f3cdbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…febcbacked Yes | 77c | 59.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4296…9546backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 75c | 39.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9033…4970backed Yes | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…bbb9backed Yes | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…0aa5backed Yes | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…0d30backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…a14cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…bb4abacked Yes | 78c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…3e62backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…5bd5backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e92…395abacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…f39ebacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7f…a3dcbacked Yes | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b1…9eadbacked Yes | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax beat Maccabi TLV?this page
- Will Maccabi TLV beat Ajax?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.