Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc3054d01c5883691a6064d58ce1778058a839f0f8487ee8998c7d4180d6317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Convictionof Conviction, CCG Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28a3…f681backed CCG Esports | 52c | 924.93$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.59 | 370 | 39.5%146 W · 224 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed CCG Esports | 36c | 454.39$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 413 | 43.8%181 W · 232 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…2104backed Conviction | 65c | 307.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Conviction | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…2d49backed Conviction | 65c | 244.43$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Conviction | 54c | 223.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 1,014 | 47.6%483 W · 531 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed CCG Esports | 36c | 212.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed CCG Esports | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Conviction | 55c | 195$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 282 | 50%141 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Conviction | 64c | 187.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.89 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c23…2f97backed Conviction | 65c | 185.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Conviction | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c3…c917backed Conviction | 64c | 142.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked CCG Esports | 33c | 141.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75b…ea01backed Conviction | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…fa33backed Conviction | 66c | 113.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Conviction | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Conviction | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Conviction | 51c | 81.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed CCG Esports | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 761 | 29%221 W · 540 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Conviction | 47c | 77.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…374abacked CCG Esports | 43c | 72.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Conviction | 58c | 61.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Conviction | 48c | 59.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Conviction | 57c | 56.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed CCG Esports | 46c | 53.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…47c0backed Conviction | 60c | 38.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 288 | 56.3%162 W · 126 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed CCG Esports | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…e653backed CCG Esports | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs CCG Esports (+1.5)this page
- Game Handicap: CNV (-2.5) vs CCG Esports (+2.5)Conviction won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers League PlayoffsConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 WinnerConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 WinnerConviction won
- LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 3 WinnerConviction won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.