NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc93b575c4df07c9be524cfc13e5048f9db8a7fabfd583eea8e303cfba4d22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 52c | 16,818$8,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,733.25 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 13,495$6,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,888.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 6,667$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,466.67 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 50c | 4,009$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.37 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 47c | 2,327$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.77 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 55c | 2,293$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 2c | 2,195$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 51c | 2,048$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.52 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 1,060$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.94 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Over | 49c | 900$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 644.32$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.19 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 51c | 589$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.39 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 502.5$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 54c | 215$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 51c | 197.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 126$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 48.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 54c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Under | 46c | 36.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 163 | 21.5%35 W · 128 L | -20.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 50c | 26.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…ba00backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. SpursSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.