NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15c324188aa93a7988386eaa7e7fab33ac2c8678d0453b0a6188fbd3ac1d37de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,633.12 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,415$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7448…b4cfbacked Over | 46c | 1,110$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.6 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…d5b3backed Under | 54c | 1,110$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Over | 47c | 873.09$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.35 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 444$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 443.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 432.73$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 55c | 199$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 172.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…7ca9backed Over | 47c | 108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…446fbacked Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…a55abacked Under | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…9b52backed Under | 54c | 101$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd935…6029backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…a7d1backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…f0e6backed Under | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 48c | 98.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…9db1backed Under | 54c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…654fbacked Over | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…e563backed Over | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Over | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Over | 52c | 49.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. SpursSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.