La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe55251beac3a51d7c79d2a6f25187c045a07751e02ddbb1a7647c81e9830d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 7c | 50,000$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,482.55 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Yes | 21c | 6,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 22c | 1,920$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.32 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 227 | 40.1%91 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 22c | 1,320$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 1,244$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6c…c5d8backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…eba4backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 79c | 800$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 79c | 732.79$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.88 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 21c | 600$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 150 | 49.3%74 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 79c | 570$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 10c | 542.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 104 | 16.3%17 W · 87 L | -10.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 528.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 169 | 26%44 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Yes | 21c | 347.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 21c | 337.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 22c | 311$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 19c | 206.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 128 | 21.1%27 W · 101 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed Yes | 21c | 175.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…c05bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 13c | 119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 22c | 107.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 80c | 101.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 147 | 59.2%87 W · 60 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2f18backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed No | 79c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 21c | 87.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f2…bd91backed Yes | 22c | 85.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…cceabacked No | 79c | 75.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 309 | 56%173 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…8b4cbacked Yes | 18c | 61.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 24c | 60.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked No | 80c | 55.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 21c | 48.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 79c | 42.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 79c | 22.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 172 | 52.3%90 W · 82 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed No | 77c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.