La Liga · resolved market
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cdae978db649d77425b6ff7373e4af2ca87e963424f76a60b5d96cb0141dbaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 72c | 9,312$6,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.24 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 29c | 6,787$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 6,233$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.05 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Yes | 28c | 4,418$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 4,256$3,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.18 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 3,895$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.79 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…4688backed No | 72c | 3,681$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…27cbbacked Yes | 29c | 3,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 72c | 2,708$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.33 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 2,615$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.79 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 2,604$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.56 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 21c | 2,200$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 32c | 1,645$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.72 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 35c | 1,413$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 29c | 1,320$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.87 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed Yes | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…e03bbacked No | 72c | 702.78$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a8…c498backed No | 72c | 494.44$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 28c | 466.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 150 | 49.3%74 W · 76 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…c2a1backed No | 72c | 458.33$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 66c | 378$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 128 | 21.1%27 W · 101 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 64c | 350.06$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 28c | 300.03$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 28c | 243.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 28c | 200.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 29c | 196.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 29c | 196.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Yes | 30c | 178.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Yes | 28c | 177.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 25c | 176.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 29c | 173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked No | 73c | 135.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed No | 70c | 91.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 79c | 86.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 73c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0028…fdc6backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed No | 65c | 68.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 31c | 59.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 79c | 52.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 21c | 51.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +14.3wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 36%50 W · 89 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 309 | 56%173 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 31c | 42.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 73c | 34.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…39fdbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 73c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 61c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked No | 72c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.