Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Natsuki Yoshimoto vs Himari Sato
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe57e52a6d79499996f6572c5da234397c1ce72c83d011903937ac9e8d643c7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuki Yoshimotoof Natsuki Yoshimoto, Himari Sato
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 79c | 6,513$5,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.98 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Himari Sato | 31c | 1,533$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.34 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Himari Sato | 22c | 1,127$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Himari Sato | 11c | 1,029$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Himari Sato | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 788 | 47.5%374 W · 414 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Himari Sato | 9c | 427.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 242 | 28.5%69 W · 173 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Himari Sato | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Himari Sato | 30c | 356.07$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Himari Sato | 31c | 196.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Himari Sato | 33c | 144$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Himari Sato | 17c | 129.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 67c | 94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Himari Sato | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Himari Sato | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 68c | 56.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Himari Sato | 31c | 49.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Himari Sato | 28c | 49.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 72c | 42.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Himari Sato | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bb0ebacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 77c | 39.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 193 | 49.7%96 W · 97 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 71c | 36.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Himari Sato | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Himari Sato | 33c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.