MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5e9d7f94064585ea34409de57b471a085ac9717f80794282f27856398f4415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 6,654$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,127.38 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 3,768$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.54 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 54c | 2,745$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.74 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,719$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 53c | 1,567$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.5 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 53c | 557.83$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.18 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 53c | 376.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.76 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 214.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 53c | 188.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 53c | 188.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.38 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 53c | 141.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Under | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Over | 52c | 89.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 52c | 40.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 52c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 48c | 26.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.