MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3927fdc47389581bd5c695f33cae18627df631ee9f1ff1c6826c5677e373a9ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x974c…3269backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 12,125$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,275.04 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 9,585$5,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,749.9 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 4,077$2,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446.2 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 1,339$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.06 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 1,092$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.21 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 1,056$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.31 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 506$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.09 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 364$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 320$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 317.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 273.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.45 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 241$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 210.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 195$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 141.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 75.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…644cbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 65.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 51.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 46.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 43.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 28.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.