MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9ed9629fbaea242012e3e1b9a6c271cd2e8712126b81c525bbf33cdda5e22fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 58c | 9,261$5,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,371.51 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 8,422$3,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,884.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 1,764$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 773.81$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 48c | 588.88$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.22 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 438.58$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.56 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 65c | 435.75$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 35c | 314.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 65c | 309.11$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 34c | 302.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 35c | 280.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 56c | 193.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 34c | 161.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 155$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 34c | 141.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 65c | 115.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 107.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 47c | 104$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 556 | 58.1%323 W · 233 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Under | 58c | 75.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 45c | 66.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Under | 65c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 51c | 56.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 41c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 51c | 47.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…89c7backed Under | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 35c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 34c | 33.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 40c | 29.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.