MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd9eb01ceb3bee78d00d19d3304b176b65a66952ed950912ce0f5910ba10a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Under | 55c | 4,942$2,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 4,783$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.65 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Over | 61c | 4,125$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.49 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 3,042$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 2,345$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 53c | 1,935$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.66 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 1,922$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 45c | 1,509$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.95 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,389$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.95 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 1,160$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 816.62$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 548.71$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 390$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 379$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 55c | 327.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 77c | 324.47$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Over | 64c | 300.68$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 55c | 244.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 36c | 235.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Over | 26c | 222.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 54c | 221$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 51c | 194.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 45c | 191.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 60c | 180.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 40c | 163$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…25a2backed Under | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 121.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 37c | 96.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 69c | 95.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.94 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9720backed Under | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 24c | 88.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 54c | 84.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 45c | 79.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Under | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 55c | 69.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 61c | 60.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 45c | 48.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 48.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 46c | 45.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 34c | 39.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Over | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Under | 54c | 30.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 67c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Under | 55c | 29.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 28.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…9729backed Over | 43c | 28.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 45c | 26.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 54c | 23.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Under | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.