MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6fb4c978d6ddc308ab7b57b920155892ad03fd69039915d687f80e472a4c243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 54c | 7,608$4,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.8 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 4,887$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.02 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 3,450$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.83 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 45c | 3,206$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.79 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 2,936$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.02 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 2,547$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 54c | 2,097$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.96 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 2,065$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 55c | 2,008$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.63 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Under | 46c | 1,561$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 46c | 1,333$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.33 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 1,253$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.84 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,206$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 46c | 888.45$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.69 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…9854backed Under | 46c | 625$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 54c | 603.73$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 64c | 588.31$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.94 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 69c | 382.91$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.21 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 45c | 355.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Under | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 46c | 320$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 283.12$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 72c | 268.43$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.37 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Over | 27c | 218.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +9.4wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Under | 46c | 212.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…50a8backed Under | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…049abacked Under | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…f527backed Under | 46c | 208.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 144.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 54c | 133.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 132.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.79 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 27c | 131.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Under | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 55c | 125.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9720backed Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…c012backed Under | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 45c | 106$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…ea41backed Under | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 53c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…4fdcbacked Under | 46c | 86.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…92f7backed Under | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Under | 46c | 72.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 66.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…cfdebacked Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 46c | 52.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 46c | 49.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 27c | 48.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 28c | 47.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 54c | 47.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…ab77backed Under | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 42.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed Under | 46c | 42.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc915…2b84backed Under | 47c | 42.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x947d…dff0backed Under | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fd…9994backed Under | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x366f…f952backed Under | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 46c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 55c | 37.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 45c | 33.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 45c | 33.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…55abbacked Under | 46c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 45c | 29.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 46c | 27.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 55c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 55c | 18.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.