Bundesliga · resolved market
Werder Bremen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe79917447b6e62c3a43a41a4b780ddc4cf26a03e28ea293b8dc3119be7f6b43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 17,584$6,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,857.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 62c | 11,630$7,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.38 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 62c | 8,662$5,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.66 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 39c | 3,846$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.87 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Under | 49c | 3,053$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bb…4375backed Over | 30c | 2,055$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +230.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Over | 61c | 1,291$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.37 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 62c | 1,283$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.64 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…f220backed Over | 50c | 1,217$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 38c | 1,075$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.83 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 58c | 1,009$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Over | 51c | 899.99$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 46c | 834$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.14 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.45 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 57c | 732.05$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.59 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…03b8backed Under | 49c | 616.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Under | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 38c | 444$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 47c | 427.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 44c | 342.01$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over | 52c | 320$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Under | 64c | 306.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.11 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Over | 61c | 299.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 38c | 299.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.68 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…5332backed Under | 38c | 219.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 37c | 216.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…d8c3backed Under | 49c | 212.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 61c | 209.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…8359backed Over | 30c | 202.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +453.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 52c | 199.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…5c6abacked Under | 74c | 189.77$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Over | 63c | 159.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 40c | 151.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 144.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 43c | 131.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 53c | 126.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…3ac2backed Under | 48c | 122.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…93c4backed Under | 49c | 122.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…e6b7backed Under | 57c | 110.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 79c | 100.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 63c | 86.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 61c | 79.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…e12fbacked Over | 63c | 79.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e5…f3ebbacked Over | 67c | 75.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…6162backed Over | 62c | 59.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 62c | 48.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…ea43backed Over | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…4425backed Under | 42c | 44.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…c439backed Over | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 78cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…7bc9backed Over | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…cb20backed Over | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd200…ec52backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 47c | 32.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…8f71backed Over | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 47c | 30.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…fe56backed Over | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…d141backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593f…61c6backed Over | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…8cb0backed Over | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x856d…2223backed Over | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…b890backed Over | 62c | 16.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Werder Bremen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Werder Bremen (-0.5)Werder Bremen won
- Werder Bremen vs. VfL Wolfsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.