Olympics · resolved market
Women's Group B - Germany vs. Japan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe80aef49205202abc819b3101adf56299099d2183b5570184e074005320b73a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Germanyof Germany, Japan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Germany | 55c | 887.67$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Japan | 46c | 861$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Japan | 42c | 702.14$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.61 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Japan | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…6492backed Germany | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Japan | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Germany | 50c | 400.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Japan | 7c | 357.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…b9a6backed Japan | 49c | 343.21$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…7f0fbacked Germany | 59c | 255.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Germany | 54c | 208$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Germany | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Japan | 42c | 152.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Japan | 45c | 148.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Japan | 47c | 127.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Germany | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Germany | 59c | 85.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Japan | 43c | 77.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Germany | 62c | 76.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Germany | 57c | 72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f8…4ecfbacked Germany | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Germany | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…68b6backed Germany | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Japan | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…619bbacked Germany | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…223fbacked Germany | 63c | 17.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.