NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe92778363b699eb32c71b20b466b3eec2dbbab1b36468464838fca4abfc458e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Stars, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef62…b736backed Ducks | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…3393backed Stars | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ducks | 71c | 900$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 30c | 843$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.99 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Ducks | 70c | 756.44$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.72 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Stars | 29c | 590.26$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.08 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Stars | 29c | 250$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Ducks | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Ducks | 69c | 104$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Ducks | 68c | 101.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc61…9d15backed Ducks | 71c | 98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Ducks | 69c | 97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Ducks | 69c | 77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Stars | 29c | 71.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Ducks | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Ducks | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2def…c26fbacked Stars | 30c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +106%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Stars | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Stars | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Ducks | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Ducks | 70c | 47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…6c73backed Stars | 30c | 47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks | 68c | 43.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Ducks | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4274…1d2dbacked Stars | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Stars | 30c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Stars | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Ducks | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. DucksStars won
- Stars vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.