NHL · resolved market

Stars vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad58aef3368719b1fff908bb527d6199c8f1bf39ee169859937e022408c3f4b1

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,505

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NHL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3e04…564dbacked Over	50c	4,792$2,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,395.9	1,891	52.4%991 W · 900 L	+36.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	50c	4,086$2,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,043.9	793	50.1%397 W · 396 L	-11.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over	51c	2,056$1,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,004.07	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	50c	1,746$874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$873.99	1,679	54.4%914 W · 765 L	+36.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	49c	1,536$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$785.76	437	43%188 W · 249 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Under	52c	800$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416	53	49.1%26 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7533…285ebacked Under	52c	674.05$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.94	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	48c	667$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$346.42	1,948	49.4%962 W · 986 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Under	49c	620$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.8	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	48c	616.53$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.93	1,230	53.7%661 W · 569 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	51c	444$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.44	495	46.5%230 W · 265 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Over	52c	386.35$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.35	485	52.2%253 W · 232 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	764	50.4%385 W · 379 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	127	56.7%72 W · 55 L	+11.4wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under	53c	117$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.01	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	51c	111$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	601	41.9%252 W · 349 L	-8.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	312	57.4%179 W · 133 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	388	57.2%222 W · 166 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad2…71f8backed Under	49c	99.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	122	50.8%62 W · 60 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under	53c	95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.35	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+5.1wins	+0.28per pick	49cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xeae5…4217backed Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	52c	89$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.28	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bb…c71fbacked Under	53c	88$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.64	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Under	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Under	50c	79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Under	52c	72$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.44	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-4.0wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Over	49c	71.43$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.43	432	56.5%244 W · 188 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under	49c	70$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-5.4wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	47c	69.73$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	484	52.3%253 W · 231 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Under	53c	66$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.98	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	58cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked Under	52c	66$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over	48c	62.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.76	244	42.6%104 W · 140 L	-9.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Under	52c	61$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.72	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under	52c	57.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	346	53.2%184 W · 162 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…c6ecbacked Over	49c	56$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.58	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.30per pick	58cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc716…f0d7backed Under	50c	54$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9014…db4abacked Under	50c	53$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.31	160	48.1%77 W · 83 L	-6.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f9…e894backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.14	156	47.4%74 W · 82 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf10…d318backed Over	72c	49.3$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.66	189	31.2%59 W · 130 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Under	53c	49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…1000backed Over	49c	42$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.45	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879d…8c58backed Over	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79c3…81e3backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	54c	38.89$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	696	53.4%372 W · 324 L	-16.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ff…94f5backed Over	51c	38.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.76	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	137	43.1%59 W · 78 L	-7.8wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Over	50c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e9…6613backed Over	48c	35$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.2	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f5f…99d3backed Over	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Over	50c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Under	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	69	49.3%34 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb590…15d3backed Under	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	481	61.3%295 W · 186 L	+21.3wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x711d…fe4bbacked Over	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd0…4938backed Under	52c	29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-3.8wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3cce…ebfebacked Over	50c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…d929backed Over	47c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.31	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	49c	25.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.01	96	49%47 W · 49 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Over	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+4.7wins	+0.22per pick	49cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x60ee…f2d4backed Over	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…b79ebacked Under	53c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4274…1d2dbacked Over	51c	24.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.01	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+3.8wins	+0.32per pick	52cpaid	+72.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Over	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	56	32.1%18 W · 38 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed Over	47c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.66	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Over	48c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.44	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under	54c	20.48$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf15b…4b51backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	629	51.2%322 W · 307 L	+18.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Stars vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Stars won
Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
Stars vs. DucksStars won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Stars vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event