NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc09b61ea6dab65dbee9bcc5f963c4158e9ae787a422b5e4676a28c4fb27b40f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Ducks, Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 31c | 3,892$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.39 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Stars | 69c | 1,693$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.38 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Stars | 69c | 761$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.58 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Stars | 69c | 645.92$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.34 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stars | 68c | 493.81$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.02 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Stars | 71c | 176$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Stars | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Stars | 72c | 145.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Stars | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Stars | 69c | 142.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Stars | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Stars | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Ducks | 29c | 86.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Stars | 71c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Stars | 71c | 77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Stars | 72c | 76.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Stars | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Stars | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Ducks | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Stars | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Stars | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Stars | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Stars | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Stars | 70c | 42.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Ducks | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Stars | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Ducks | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Stars | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Ducks | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Stars | 69c | 36.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Stars | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Ducks | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Stars | 72c | 32.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Stars | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Stars | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8039…6b4bbacked Stars | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Stars | 69c | 24.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Stars | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Stars | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Stars | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed Stars | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Stars | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. DucksStars won
- Stars vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.