South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Belgrano vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe92c408049a09b24ff0834395d31a6a5a5bc6dfda764483a8c00c109a4e0f99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Over | 17c | 4,118$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.97 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over | 15c | 3,408$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.13 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Over | 46c | 2,848$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.58 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,836$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.17 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 1,800$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 46c | 1,245$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.89 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 8c | 765.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 52c | 699.98$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.99 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Over | 11c | 555$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 68c | 449.09$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 52c | 375.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 43c | 375.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 13c | 305.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…80d6backed Over | 47c | 195.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 173.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Over | 47c | 155.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 53c | 135.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 106.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 103.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Over | 47c | 93.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +392.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 91.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 14c | 79.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 42c | 71.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Over | 47c | 61.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…24b1backed Under | 70c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…e8b9backed Under | 61c | 33.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 79c | 27.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 63c | 17.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Belgrano vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 3.5this page
- CA Belgrano vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: CA Belgrano O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Belgrano vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Belgrano vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
- Spread: CA Belgrano (-2.5)CSyD Defensa y Justicia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.