Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeaff85dd2a26863148d5b59e45ca669b39fb65b533c4b7136a51338688224bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 73c | 1,421$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 17c | 1,247$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,044$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 10c | 1,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 972.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 5c | 856.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 8c | 798.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 19c | 616.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 7c | 564.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 524.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 4c | 501.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 75c | 470.48$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 64c | 390.92$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 342.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 11c | 290.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 78c | 290$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 263.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 242.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 239.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 5c | 228.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 53c | 218.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 5c | 217$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…aef2backed No | 79c | 210.08$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 6c | 168.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 7c | 162.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 146.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 60c | 139.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 8c | 131.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 43c | 130.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 15c | 129.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 15c | 111.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 11c | 100.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…b91bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 92.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 18c | 92.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 21c | 84.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 55c | 75.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 72.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…9d4cbacked Yes | 25c | 71.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 62c | 60.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 41c | 59.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…32c1backed No | 58c | 59.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 59c | 44.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 56c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 30.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed No | 67c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb38…3260backed No | 61c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed No | 65c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.