Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1befdc526801dac148b49938cd002fe15b721e3edef3ebd58bce00a87884968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 72c | 2,064$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.69 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 25c | 1,528$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.58 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 61c | 1,453$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.47 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 49c | 985.38$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.91 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 946.22$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 35c | 887.31$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.55 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 703.91$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 27c | 498.57$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.43 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 464.63$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 38c | 423.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 57c | 352.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 350.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 43c | 337.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 324.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 309.52$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 42c | 305.74$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 299.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 294.64$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 291.8$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 276.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 269.18$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 59c | 249.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 39c | 242$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 241.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 5c | 217$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 215.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 213.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 209$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 187.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 184.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 181.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 180.57$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 13c | 172.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 164.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 164.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 40c | 146.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.37 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 22c | 146.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…99ddbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 50c | 138.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 14c | 137.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 132.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 55c | 126.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 122.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 119.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 42c | 117.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 115.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 115.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 112.74$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…b9c8backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 110.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 57c | 109.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 51c | 103.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 63c | 103.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 33c | 100.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…b91bbacked Yes | 13c | 99.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 15c | 97.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 51c | 90.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 56c | 85.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 85.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 58c | 85.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 60c | 83.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 83.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 82.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 58c | 73.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 56c | 72.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 41c | 72.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…b0ecbacked Yes | 16c | 68.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 63.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 62.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 26c | 60.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 57.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…c9e8backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed No | 62c | 53.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 52.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 57c | 52.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 37c | 52.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 52.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 51.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 51.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 49.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 49.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 48.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 62c | 48.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.