Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37afbdc5953e6561b895e1e4ee8a392100029c51b9cd684c4436d764faaf8feb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked No | 67c | 4,944$3,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,320.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 2c | 1,428$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 1,144$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 899.78$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 868.61$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 663.01$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 2c | 611.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 524.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.87 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 38c | 442.89$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.6 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked No | 7c | 440.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 424.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 42c | 408.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.96 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 398.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 69c | 364.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 30c | 352.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.76 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 32c | 298.13$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 259.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 256$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed No | 10c | 253.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 244$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 35c | 238.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.34 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 237.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 28c | 210.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 205$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 43c | 200$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…b91bbacked Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes | 53c | 179.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 177.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 176$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 157.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 38c | 153.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 51c | 147.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 42c | 143.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 141.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 33c | 135.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 131.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 66c | 129.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 35c | 129.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 37c | 121.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 38c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 119.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 119.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 18c | 111.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 34c | 111.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 63c | 107.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 40c | 106.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 44c | 106.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 47c | 106.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 104.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 102.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 32c | 101.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…16e6backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 99.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…01fabacked No | 12c | 93.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 29c | 89.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 33c | 89.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…d255backed Yes | 66c | 87.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 56c | 85.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 15c | 85.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 52c | 84.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 84.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 39c | 82.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 61c | 81.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 43c | 81.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 55c | 79.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 32c | 79.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 76.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 21c | 74.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 74.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 74.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 58c | 73.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 72.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a48…08c5backed Yes | 72c | 71.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 68.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 52c | 67.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 64.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 63.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…4ad0backed Yes | 69c | 61.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 62c | 60.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 43c | 57.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 35c | 56.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 39c | 50.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.