TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,798
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,798 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56ab…784ebacked No67c4,944$3,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.791118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.32per pick51cpaid-68.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed No2c1,428$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9415570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes27c1,144$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.152,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No43c899.78$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.274,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c868.61$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.144,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No32c663.01$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.991,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No2c611.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.251,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes38c524.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.871,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes38c442.89$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked No7c440.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.948421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No5c424.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes42c408.06$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c398.68$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.166,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8593…82f5backed Yes69c364.3$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.618337.3%31 W · 52 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes30c352.91$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.7641046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes8c300$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2761,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes41c300$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17843932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes32c298.13$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2230722.1%68 W · 239 L-14.8wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c259.13$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.763,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c256$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.645,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…00a0backed No10c253.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c244$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.674,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes35c238.12$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.3427246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c237.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x12df…64d2backed Yes28c210.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.841136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No67c205$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.943,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes43c200$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc138…b91bbacked Yes25c200$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5e…c32abacked Yes53c179.29$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes39c177.34$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.771,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c176$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.145,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c157.83$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.454,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes38c153.05$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.6589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9815630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed Yes51c147.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.153250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes42c143.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2624141.1%99 W · 142 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes35c143$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c141.27$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes33c135.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9542948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes31c131.39$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.823,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf828…5ca4backed No66c129.69$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.642326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-43.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes35c129.25$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.152,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No37c121.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes38c120$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd069…9599backed Yes27c120$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.22272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+31.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes42c119.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.041,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c119.65$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No18c111.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.622,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes34c111.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.582,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes35c110$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7723129.4%68 W · 163 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes63c107.37$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3112927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes40c106.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.614637%17 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes44c106.84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9242849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No47c106.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9238560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes28c105$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes34c104.95$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.951,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes37c102.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes32c101.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…16e6backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c99.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.763,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No12c93.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No29c89.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.032,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes33c89.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.747239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe14…d255backed Yes66c87.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No56c85.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.757044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No15c85.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes52c84.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.022,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes32c84.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.982,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes39c82.52$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6325135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3f5…3464backed Yes61c81.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.911050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes43c81.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.192,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes55c79.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7211983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Yes32c79.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.947850%39 W · 39 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes24c76.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.842,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes21c74.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6110447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No49c74.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.71,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No29c74.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.742,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No58c73.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4115669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No29c72.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.931,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a48…08c5backed Yes72c71.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.468100%8 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.760739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c68.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.657,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes52c67.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3637465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes39c67$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7247538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x276a…d445backed Yes37c67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.214632.6%15 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes41c64.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.152,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes34c63.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x028b…4ad0backed Yes69c61.53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No62c60.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.351,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.214151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.63231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes43c57.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5111927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes35c56.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.549239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes39c50.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.815448.1%26 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd73…7481backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb11…6147backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.742867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No58c49.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1728163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.