Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec3125e01fbe55c1b6aa97f5dcb48315ddf8ca86fdc3882294afd1fb2086286
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked L1ga Team | 48c | 2,611$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.98 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 37c | 1,749$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.45 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked AVULUS | 54c | 1,558$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.03 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked AVULUS | 11c | 1,405$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9142…22c0backed AVULUS | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…e344backed AVULUS | 55c | 520.93$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked L1ga Team | 4c | 372.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.06 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…95babacked AVULUS | 54c | 369$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked AVULUS | 18c | 329.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked L1ga Team | 73c | 307.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…08f5backed AVULUS | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed AVULUS | 22c | 293.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked AVULUS | 18c | 233.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed AVULUS | 55c | 207.89$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.34 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked AVULUS | 54c | 199.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c6…ff7dbacked AVULUS | 21c | 194.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 163.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed L1ga Team | 62c | 116.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked L1ga Team | 49c | 102.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed AVULUS | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked L1ga Team | 49c | 99.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…9d8bbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 80.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed AVULUS | 26c | 77.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed AVULUS | 38c | 76.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked AVULUS | 40c | 75.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed L1ga Team | 56c | 74.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked L1ga Team | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed L1ga Team | 48c | 52.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed AVULUS | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…3e5dbacked L1ga Team | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed AVULUS | 25c | 44.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1758…5d73backed L1ga Team | 52c | 42.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed AVULUS | 49c | 40.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked L1ga Team | 74c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked L1ga Team | 45c | 37.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed L1ga Team | 47c | 34.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed L1ga Team | 65c | 34.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed AVULUS | 38c | 33.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a0c7backed L1ga Team | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked AVULUS | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed L1ga Team | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed L1ga Team | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked AVULUS | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…41f8backed L1ga Team | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed AVULUS | 55c | 22.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked L1ga Team | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed L1ga Team | 64c | 16.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9251…1fe5backed L1ga Team | 77c | 13.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
- First Blood in Game 3?L1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.