TailMyPicks
Market

Asian League · resolved market

Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chongqing Tonglianglong FCof Chengdu Rongcheng FC, Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,070
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,070 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Asian League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0346…52a5backed Chengdu Rongcheng FC7c3,378$239 inLost-$239.372,52039.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L-21.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC67c379.61$254 inWon+$125.4630731.9%98 W · 209 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa597…79d7backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC72c277.78$200 inWon+$77.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC69c270.97$187 inWon+$84.291,99154.1%1,078 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Chongqing Tonglianglong FC69c239.97$166 inWon+$74.0954746.8%256 W · 291 L-16.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC69c144.91$100 inWon+$44.9215352.9%81 W · 72 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbfba…583cbacked Chengdu Rongcheng FC36c137.83$49 inLost-$49.144934.7%17 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC73c98.03$72 inWon+$26.4737552%195 W · 180 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe253…b9c7backed Chengdu Rongcheng FC36c95.78$34 inLost-$34.186038.3%23 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4548…e4b5backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC71c70.86$50 inWon+$20.871675%12 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+37.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC68c49.99$34 inWon+$1626052.7%137 W · 123 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chengdu Rongcheng FC32c45.31$14 inLost-$14.52,45637.9%931 W · 1,525 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Chongqing Tonglianglong FC71c28.17$20 inWon+$8.1719268.2%131 W · 61 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x927c…a79abacked Chongqing Tonglianglong FC68c17.1$12 inWon+$5.47837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa402…d14bbacked Chongqing Tonglianglong FC74c13.78$10 inWon+$3.582763%17 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.