Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeeb05a8bce3fd96cd74d9feec9a49a6e05729655672416545b2f896b9661532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed No | 1c | 2,526$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 1c | 2,013$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 200.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…6e05backed Yes | 51c | 197.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 60c | 184.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 49c | 147.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 73c | 124.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 96.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 85.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 68c | 69.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 57.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 52.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 44c | 51.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 47c | 38.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 43c | 35.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 73c | 31.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 44c | 30.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 25.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 24.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.