NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Kings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff0ef3caa2687d8b2dca13f62904c1cd86c82e30a77550acbc8cbbad1e216308
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,712 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 47c | 3,072$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.99 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,090$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.38 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Under | 54c | 699.99$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 578.15$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.37 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 45c | 550$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 456.42$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 45c | 418.01$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 47c | 299.91$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…763dbacked Under | 55c | 217.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 202.96$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.14 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Under | 54c | 185.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 149.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 100.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642e…063bbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 70.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 50c | 62.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 55.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 48.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 45c | 36.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Under | 54c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 60c | 20.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Kings: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. KingsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Kings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.