World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout be at least 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff2e64f24cd12cdb30cb68835cd2b3fbad048c8331613112c3bee01e48710e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,031$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1983…2b4ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…27b2backed Yes | 20c | 900.95$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…0ab4backed Yes | 25c | 495.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 10c | 483.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…ebc1backed Yes | 16c | 457.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3655backed Yes | 14c | 433.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…0631backed Yes | 5c | 365.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed No | 74c | 302.55$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 6c | 258.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…018cbacked Yes | 21c | 237.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…81c2backed Yes | 10c | 223.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 75c | 219.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341f…0d24backed Yes | 12c | 217.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked Yes | 25c | 160.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…8b16backed Yes | 6c | 159.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5701…6d2abacked Yes | 8c | 148.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 70c | 135.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 25c | 129.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eeb…451fbacked Yes | 10c | 114.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…d68bbacked Yes | 22c | 111.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 67.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…0677backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 24c | 54.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…cc23backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 77c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout be at least 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?this page
- Will turnout be between 4.6 million and 5.0 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 5.0 million and 5.4 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 5.4 million and 5.8 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 5.8 million and 6.2 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
- Will turnout be between 6.2 million and 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?Yes won
- Will turnout be less than 4.6 million in the 2025 Bolivia Presidential Election second round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.